Statistics

Poisson Distribution Calculator

The Poisson distribution models the number of events in a fixed interval when events happen at a constant average rate λ, independently. Enter λ and a target k to get the point probability, the cumulative probabilities and the (equal) mean and variance.

Poisson Distribution Calculator

P(X = k), P(X ≤ k), P(X ≥ k) plus mean and variance for Poisson(λ).

Try:
AnswerP(X = 2) = 0.224042, P(X ≤ 2) = 0.42319, P(X ≥ 2) = 0.800852
  1. DistributionX ~ Poisson(λ = 3)
  2. P(X = k)e^(−λ)·λ^k/k! = e^(−3)·3^2/2! = 0.224042
  3. P(X ≤ k)0.42319
  4. P(X < k)0.199148
  5. P(X ≥ k)1 − P(X < k) = 0.800852
  6. Meanμ = λ = 3
  7. Varianceσ² = λ = 3
  8. Standard deviationσ = √λ = 1.73205

Worked examples

Frequently asked questions

When does Poisson apply?

When events occur independently at a constant average rate, and the count over a fixed window is what you want to model — calls to a help line per hour, photons per second, defects per metre.

Why are the mean and variance both λ?

It is a defining property of the Poisson distribution. The standard deviation is therefore √λ — variability grows as the square root of the rate.

How does Poisson relate to Binomial?

Poisson(λ) is the limiting case of Binomial(n, p) as n → ∞ and p → 0 with n·p = λ held fixed. So it approximates rare events over many trials.